Heaven or Hell

Discussion of Whether We're Headed for Heaven or Hell

The Ridley-Pinker optimists argue, with some force, that the benign impact of globalisation has not received the recognition it is due and that the argument has been contaminated by the left’s sour grapes. In a pointed example of historical cross-dressing, the right has inherited the Enlightenment tradition of optimism: the belief that reason will invariably conquer its enemies, and that history therefore has an underlying direction as greater prosperity gradually reduces crime, indigence and ill health. Implicit in this position is an impatience with the left for refusing to acknowledge the reams of statistics deployed by the right and the role of trade in making the world a safer, healthier, less violent place.

Yet that is not the end of the matter; patently not. If everything is getting better, why doesn’t it feel that way?
- Matthew d'Ancona, If everything is getting better, why doesn’t it feel that way?, The Guardian, 28 Dec 2015

Danny Boy
Lakewood, CA [5/1/2020]
@Paul Krugman This article and your response here make it clear that people like you are the problem!

So first off in your article you say that the economy is still horrible and will be horrible. So what did Powell really prevent? I would say he prevented rich people's wealth being cut down by 70%. But for other 98% of the population that don't own a ton of stocks, his actions don't help in fact they may do the opposite. So it is very debatable that Powell's actions have limited the economic collapse except for rich people who own stocks.

Now let's get to the fact that you feel it was okay to do this even though it completely rewards moral hazard, as the Fed has been doing for the past 20 years. This just guarantees that it will continue and in fact get worse.

I am sorry, but I am going to be very direct here: I think you support the Fed's decision because you own a lot of stocks. And so it personally helps you very much.

Is that true? Can you please tell us how much money you have invested in markets and whether they had tanked a month ago? Truly, we need to know before seeing more articles like this...
- Comment on Paul Krugman, Crashing Economy, Rising Stocks: What’s Going On?, NYT, April 30, 2020

The Rational Optimist is riddled with excruciating errors and distortions. Ridley claims, for instance, that "every country that tried protectionism" after the second world war suffered as a result. He cites South Korea and Taiwan as "countries that went the other way", and experienced miraculous growth. In reality, the governments of both nations subsidised key industries, actively promoted exports, and used tariffs and laws to shut out competing imports. In both countries the state owned all the major commercial banks, allowing it to make decisions about investment (all references are on my website).

He maintains that "Enron funded climate alarmism". The reference he gives demonstrates nothing of the sort, nor can I find evidence for this claim elsewhere. He says that "no significant error has come to light" in Bjørn Lomborg's book The Sceptical Environmentalist. In fact, it contains so many significant errors that an entire book – The Lomborg Deception by Howard Friel – was required to document them.

Ridley asserts that average temperature changes over "the last three decades" have been "relatively slow". In reality, the rise over this period has been the most rapid since instrumental records began. He maintains that "11 of 13 populations" of polar bears are "growing or steady". There are in fact 19 populations of polar bears. Of those whose fluctuations have been measured, one is increasing, three are stable, and eight are declining.
- George Monbiot, This state-hating free marketeer ignores his own failed experiment, The Guardian, 31 May 2010

What Ridley glosses over is that before he wrote this book he had an opportunity to put his theories into practice. As chairman of Northern Rock, he was responsible, according to parliament's Treasury select committee, for a "high-risk, reckless business strategy". Northern Rock was able to pursue this strategy as a result of a "substantial failure of regulation" by the state. The wonderful outcome of this experiment was the first run on a British bank since 1878, and a £27bn government bail-out.

But it's not just Ridley who doesn't mention the inconvenient disjunction between theory and practice: hardly anyone does. His book has now been reviewed dozens of times, and almost all the reviewers have either been unaware of his demonstration of what happens when his philosophy is applied or too polite to mention it. The reason, as far as I can see, is that Ridley is telling people – especially rich, powerful people – what they want to hear.

He tells them that they needn't worry about social or environmental issues, because these will sort themselves out if the market is liberated from government control. He tells them that they are right to assert that government should get off their backs and stop interfering with its pettifogging rules and regulations: they should be left alone to make as much money as they like, however they like. ...
I also pointed out that Ridley had made a series of shocking errors and distortions in his book. I showed how he had misrepresented economic history, made claims that bore no relation to the references he gave, and reeled off facts about the environment which were just plain wrong. Again, none of this has been picked up by Ridley's reviewers.

Ridley himself has claimed that his shocking mistakes aren't mistakes at all, then proceeds to compound them with a series of spurious justifications. Here are a few examples: ...
If Ridley really believes that this passage isn't designed to suggest that the general trend is positive, his intellectual dishonesty runs deeper than I had imagined. And if he can't see that his selective treatment of the subject is blatant cherry-picking, it says more than he would care to about his standards of objectivity.
- George Monbiot, Matt Ridley's Rational Optimist is telling the rich what they want to hear, The Guardian, 18 Jun 2010

In the Wall Street Journal, Matt Ridley has made yet another attempt to convince the public that global warming won’t be that bad. ... The facts just don’t align with Ridley’s portrayal.
- Climate Science Watch, In WSJ, Ridley presents medley of long-debunked climate claims, September 14, 2013

Matt Ridley defends himself by appealing to testimony by Roger Pielke:

Every time I argue for a lukewarm “third way” — that climate change is real but slow, partly man-made but also susceptible to natural factors, and might be dangerous but more likely will not be — I am attacked from both sides. ...
This is what Roger Pielke Jr said in recent testimony to Congress:

"• It is misleading, and just plain incorrect, to claim that disasters associated with hurricanes, tornadoes, floods or droughts have increased on climate timescales either in the United States or globally. It is further incorrect to associate the increasing costs of disasters with the emission of greenhouse gases. ...
• Drought has “for the most part, become shorter, less frequent, and cover a smaller portion of the U. S. over the last century.” Globally, “there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years.” ... "
- Matt Ridley, GLOBAL LUKEWARMING NEED NOT BE CATASTROPHIC, Matt Ridley Blog, 01 October, 2013

Pielke, however, is not a trustworthy source. For instance:

Why has there been such a buzz about FiveThirtyEight and Roger Pielke Jr.? Likely because Pielke has a history of climate claims which have been criticized by scientists — not the type of hire many of us expected by the FiveThirtyEight team. Dr. Pielke, a political scientist (not a climate scientist), was recently called out by Dr. John Holdren for statements he made to congress on droughts. ...
Unfortunately, Roger Pielke’s views are at odds with many peer-reviewed studies that look at this, and they are at odds with some of the studies he cites in his article. ...
These inexact phrases, extensions of his own work beyond their application, and inclusion of non-weather-related disasters are some of the reasons his conclusions are not taken seriously by myself and other climate scientists.
- John P. Abraham, Statistics and Climate Science: Roger Pielke Missed the Mark, THE BLOG, Huffington Post, 03/27/2014, Updated May 27, 2014

More than four centuries later, there are many who need to be reassured of their significance in the world. The Elizabethans found in divination support for their belief that history contained a hidden design that would culminate in a new world order. Obeying the same need for meaning, modern thinkers look to numbers for signs that show the emergence of a world founded on rational and moral principles. They believe that improvement in ethics and politics is incremental and accretive: one advance is followed by another in a process that stabilises and strengthens the advances that have already taken place. Now and then regress may occur, but when this happens it does so against a background in which the greater part of what has been achieved so far does not pass away. Slowly, over time, the world is becoming a better place.

The ancient world, along with all the major religions and pre-modern philosophies, had a different and truer view. Improvements in civilisation are real enough, but they come and go. While knowledge and invention may grow cumulatively and at an accelerating rate, advances in ethics and politics are erratic, discontinuous and easily lost. Amid the general drift, cycles can be discerned: peace and freedom alternate with war and tyranny, eras of increasing wealth with periods of economic collapse. Instead of becoming ever stronger and more widely spread, civilisation remains inherently fragile and regularly succumbs to barbarism. This view, which was taken for granted until sometime in the mid-18th century, is so threatening to modern hopes that it is now practically incomprehensible.

Unable to tolerate the prospect that the cycles of conflict will continue, many are anxious to find continuing improvement in the human lot. Who can fail to sympathise with them?
- John Gray: Steven Pinker is wrong about violence and war, The Guardian, March 13, 2015

The loose but growing collection of pundits, academics and thinktank operatives who endorse this stubbornly cheerful, handbasket-free account of our situation have occasionally been labelled “the New Optimists”, a name intended to evoke the rebellious scepticism of the New Atheists led by Richard Dawkins, Daniel Dennett and Sam Harris. And from their perspective, our prevailing mood of despair is irrational, and frankly a bit self-indulgent. They argue that it says more about us than it does about how things really are – illustrating a certain tendency toward collective self-flagellation, and an unwillingness to believe in the power of human ingenuity. And that it is best explained as the result of various psychological biases that served a purpose on the prehistoric savannah – but now, in a media-saturated era, constantly mislead us.

“Once upon a time, it was of great survival value to be worried about everything that could go wrong,” says Johan Norberg, a Swedish historian and self-declared New Optimist whose book Progress: Ten Reasons to Look Forward to the Future was published just before Trump won the presidency last year. This is what makes bad news especially compelling: in our evolutionary past, it was a very good thing that your attention could be easily seized by negative information, since it might well indicate an imminent risk to your own survival.
- Oliver Burkeman, Is the world really better than ever?, The Guardian, 28 Jul 2017 [good overview with lots of references]

[SP:] But reason is not a powerful part of human nature. Innately, we favor family over strangers, our tribe over other tribes. ...
[BG:] So, when you consider a radical change, like “Hey, let’s tear up the global trade agreements; they’re a disaster,” you’re more likely to implement it if you think things are getting worse. “Let’s tear up the treaties. Let’s try a nondemocratic approach.” Your willingness to go off the current path is much, much higher. But you can hardly be serious about government — or society as a whole — unless you say: What are the measures that count, and how are we doing on those measures? ...
[SP:] We should appreciate how much better off we are and try to improve our institutions guided by what works and what doesn’t. ...
[BG:] There’s a paradox in letting yourself be very, very upset about what remains to be done. What indicator improves even faster than reduction in violence? Our distaste for violence. We’re more upset about it today. ... But to read Steven’s book and think it says, “Don’t worry, be happy,” is to misread it. ...
[SP:] You can say the same fact two ways. Extreme global poverty has been reduced from 90 percent 200 years ago to 10 percent today. That’s great! Or you can say: More than 700 million people in the world live in extreme poverty today. They’re the same fact.... ...
[BG:] And, yes, I embrace more risk. Most philanthropists don’t take huge, 10-to-15-years-type risks. ...
[BG:] There are different time frames. Take the #MeToo movement. We’re in a period of awakening now. It is not worse today than it was five years ago. We’re just more aware. And five years from now this outrage will have been a factor in making things better than five years ago, when it was hidden. ...
[SP:] When people subscribe to an ideology, they suck up evidence that supports their preconceptions and filter out evidence that goes against them. Contrary to the belief of most scientists that denial of climate change is an effect of scientific illiteracy, it is not at all correlated with scientific literacy. People who believe in man-made climate change don’t know any more about climate or science than those who deny it. It’s almost perfectly correlated with left-wing versus right-wing orientation. ...
[BG:] But I’m optimistic. I do think awareness of how things have worked is important to recreate a conservative center — that is, make us careful about what we change. ...
''[BG:] But the problem now is that innovation is not viewed as an unalloyed way to improve the human condition. And that’s fair, because it’s not pure. Does social media split us into tribes in a way that’s dangerous? Does it create, even in high school social circles, a channel for bullying, or a desire to look perfect in photos? Is A.I. going to proceed so quickly that work, which is something people worship, will suffer bad distributional effects, and people won’t know what to do? This is an unfortunate time for saying, “Take all your damn negative thoughts, and I’ll innovate away from them.” People are seeing difficulty with that argument. ...
[SP:] There’s also a dichotomy between the roles of innovation and policy. There are certain things that governments are always going to do better than private innovators.
- PHILIP GALANES, The Mind Meld of Bill Gates and Steven Pinker, NYT, JAN. 27, 2018

Some 1.3 billion people still live in extreme poverty....
- LANDON THOMAS Jr., The World Bank Is Remaking Itself as a Creature of Wall Street, NYT, JAN. 25, 2018 [This is on p. 4 of the Sunday January 28th Business section. On p. 5 of the same section, Steven Pinker is quoted as saying "You can say the same fact two ways. Extreme global poverty has been reduced from 90 percent 200 years ago to 10 percent today. That’s great! Or you can say: More than 700 million people in the world live in extreme poverty today. They’re the same fact...." As of Dec. 2017 the world population was said to be 7.6 billion, so 10% would be 760 million in extreme poverty, quite a discrepancy from 1.3 billion.]

“So many positive things going on for the U.S.A. and the Fake News Media just doesn’t want to go there,” [https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/962753552824365056|he [Donald Trump] wrote] on Twitter. “Same negative stories over and over again! No wonder the People no longer trust the media, whose approval ratings are correctly at their lowest levels in history!”
- PETER BAKER and MAGGIE HABERMAN, Abuse Case Exposes Fissures in a White House in Turmoil, NYT, FEB. 11, 2018

Once we had eaten, we asked one of the waitresses if we could talk to her. She nodded uncertainly and dried her hands on her apron. ...
“Things are better in Russia now,” she said. “The economy is improving, our lives are getting better and better.”

“What are you saying?” said a man over at the cash register, looking at us. “Things are worse in Russia! It’s all going downhill! Worse and worse!”
- KARL OVE KNAUSGAARD, A Literary Road Trip Into the Heart of Russia, NYT, FEB. 14, 2018

These days almost everyone has the (justified) sense that America is coming apart at the seams. But this isn’t a new story, or just about politics. Things have been falling apart on multiple fronts since the 1970s: Political polarization has marched side by side with economic polarization, as income inequality has soared.
- Paul Krugman, What’s the Matter With Trumpland?, NYT, April 2, 2018

But... any institution that assumes that past success guarantees the future is being foolish.”
- Terry W. Hartle, senior vice president of government and public affairs at the American Council on Education, quoted in ERICA L. GREEN, With Changing Students and Times, Colleges Are Going Back to School, NYT, APRIL 5, 2018

ROME, the Maya, Bronze Age Greece: every complex society in history has collapsed. Will our industrial civilisation be any different?

Probably not.
- Debora MacKenzie, John Horgan and Richard Webb, What happens when society crumbles and progress stops, New Scientist, 1 June 2016

There’s a mountain of evidence suggesting that the quality of our relationships has been in steady decline for decades. In the 1980s, 20 percent of Americans said they were often lonely. Now it’s 40 percent. Suicide rates are now at a 30-year high. Depression rates have increased tenfold since 1960, which is not only a result of greater reporting. Most children born to mothers under 30 are born outside of marriage. There’s been a steady 30-year decline in Americans’ satisfaction with the peer-to-peer relationships at work.

Former Surgeon General Vivek Murthy summarized his experience as a doctor in an article in September in The Harvard Business Review: “During my years caring for patients, the most common pathology I saw was not heart disease or diabetes; it was loneliness.” ...

Weak social connections have health effects similar to smoking 15 cigarettes a day, and a greater negative effect than obesity, he said.

Over the past five years, such trends have abruptly gotten worse. In 2012, 5.9 percent of young people suffered from severe mental health issues. By 2015 it was 8.2 percent.

Last year, Jean Twenge wrote a much-discussed article for The Atlantic, “Have Smartphones Destroyed a Generation,” charting the accelerating social collapse. Teenagers are suddenly less likely to date, less likely to leave the home without their parents, more likely to put off the activities of adulthood. They are spending more time alone with their digital screens, and the greater the screen time, the greater the unhappiness. Eighth graders who are heavy users of social media are 27 percent more likely to be depressed. ...
But the big issue surrounding Facebook is not privacy. It’s that Facebook and other social media companies are feeding this epidemic of loneliness and social isolation.
- David Brooks, The Blindness of Social Wealth, NYT, April 16, 2018

The neural response patterns evoked by the videos — on subjects as diverse as the dangers of college football, the behavior of water in outer space, and Liam Neeson trying his hand at improv comedy — proved so congruent among friends, compared to patterns seen among people who were not friends, that the researchers could predict the strength of two people’s social bond based on their brain scans alone. ...
The new study is part of a surge of scientific interest in the nature, structure and evolution of friendship. Behind the enthusiasm is a virtual Kilimanjaro of demographic evidence that friendlessness can be poisonous, exacting a physical and emotional toll comparable to that of more familiar risk factors like obesity, high blood pressure, unemployment, lack of exercise, smoking cigarettes. ...
Dr. Christakis and his co-workers recently demonstrated that people with strong social ties had comparatively low concentrations of fibrinogen, a protein associated with the kind of chronic inflammation thought to be the source of many diseases.
- NATALIE ANGIER, You Share Everything With Your Bestie. Even Brain Waves., NYT, APRIL 16, 2018

Even liberal economists such as Nouriel Roubini agree that Marx’s conviction that capitalism has an inbuilt tendency to destroy itself remains as prescient as ever.
- Jason Barker, Happy Birthday, Karl Marx. You Were Right!, NYT, April 30, 2018

Similarly, when the film World War Z premiered in the summer of 2013, the end of the world was also captured in at least five other films: Joseph Kosinski’s Oblivion, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pacific Rim, M. Night Shyamalan’s After Earth, Evan Goldberg and Seth Rogen’s This Is the End, and Edgar Wright’s The World’s End. By the summer of 2014, Entertainment Weekly had to release an “Apocalypse Issue” in order to cover all of the salient new summer blockbusters set in a postapocalyctic era. It is not merely zombies that have crested culturally—it is the end of the world. ...
In other words, if citizens think that we’re teetering on the brink of chaos, the apocalyptic mindset can, in and of itself, help bring about the very disaster it fears. ...
The rise of the zombie metaphor both reflects and reifies collective perceptions of societal breakdown. Communications scholar Brian Anse Patrick (2014, 25) explicitly argues that “the zombie phenomenon represents a profound disturbance in the Western collective unconscious caused by anxieties over the decline of Western civilization.” ...
Consider the observations of a survivalist instructor (Bowser 2014):
The “defend what’s mine” mentality states that the moment “shit goes down,” every other human in the world instantly becomes either a resource to be used or a threat to be eliminated. Whomever you designate as “your tribe” are the only people with any value—all others are simply mindless sheep to be picked off with your shiny new AR-15.
- Daniel W. Drezner, Metaphor of the Living Dead: Or, the Effect of the Zombie Apocalypse on Public Policy Discourse, Social Research: An International Quarterly, Volume 81, Number 4, Winter 2014, pp. 825-849

The next panel asks us to consider whether the West will survive. In recent years, this question would invite accusations of hyperbole and alarmism. Not this year. If ever there were a time to treat this question with a deadly seriousness, it is now.

This question was real, half a century ago, for Ewald von Kleist and the founders of this conference. Indeed, it is why they first started coming to Munich. They did not assume the West would survive, because they had seen its near annihilation. They saw open markets give way to beggar-thy-neighbor protectionism, and the poverty that imposed. They saw a world order fracture into clashing ethnic and nationalist passions, and the misery that wrought. They saw the rise of hostile great powers, and the failure of deterrence, and the wars that followed.

We've lost hope for the future in all these different ways. ...
We should not let our ideological biases obscure the sort of objective decline that has happened. ... I think the universities have played a big role in this decline.... The real scientists have been replaced by people who are nimble in the art of government grants....''
You never really push the envelope, you never ask tough questions. ... It's always easiest for us to see a lot of the conformity and political correctness in the humanities.... ...
There are all these things you could no longer do. ... The history about the stagnation, sclerosis of the United States — the conservative versus liberal debate is always when did this start. ... The liberals always say it started in the eighties with Reagan. The conservatives say it started in the seventies. And I think the conservatives are really right about that. ...
We landed on the moon in July of 1969. Woodstock started three weeks later. And I think with the benefit of hindsight we can say that that's when the hippies took over the country and when the true sort of cultural war — this question of progress — was somehow lost and the stagnation of the seventies really set in.

- Peter Thiel, The Reasons for the Decline of Western Civilization and Science, PhilosophyInsights, published on Sep 17, 2017 [excerpt from Peter Thiel Speech at ISI's 2014 Dinner for Western Civilization]

“This is always a problem with élites, they’re always skewed in an optimistic direction,” he said. “It may be true to an even greater extent at present. If you were born in 1950, and you were in the top-tenth percentile economically, everything got better for twenty years automatically. Then, after the late sixties, you went to a good grad school, and you got a good job on Wall Street in the late seventies, and then you hit the boom. Your story has been one of incredible, unrelenting progress for sixty-one years. Most people who are sixty-one years old in the U.S.? Not their story at all.” ...
“I actually think it is a big step just to ask the question ‘What does one need to do to make the U.S. a better place?’ That’s where I’m weirdly hopeful, in spite of the fact that a lot of things aren’t going perfectly these days. There is a very cathartic crisis that’s gone on, and it’s not clear where it’s going to go. But at least everyone knows things are rotten. We’re in a much better place than when things were rotten and everyone thought things were great.”
- Peter Thiel, quoted in George Packer, No Death, No Taxes: The libertarian futurism of a Silicon Valley billionaire., The New Yorker, November 28, 2011

The real question is whether digital technology can produce the enduring changes in the brain that addictive drugs do. There is little evidence that this is the case. And while an alcoholic deprived of his drink can go into life-threatening withdrawal, I have yet to see an adolescent in the emergency room with smartphone withdrawal — just a sullen teenager who wants his device back.

Considering all this, why do so many parents still insist that their teenager has a problem with anxiety? I fear that it reflects a cultural shift toward pathologizing everyday levels of distress.

There is a difference between an anxiety disorder and everyday anxiety. The first impairs people’s ability to function because they suffer from excessive anxiety even when there is little or nothing to be anxious about. The second is a perfectly normal and rational response to real stress. Teenagers — and people of all ages — will and should feel anxious occasionally.

Some would argue that young people today are more worried because the world is now in a more parlous state, what with intense competition for college and the lingering effects of the Great Recession, among other factors. Sure, but then that anxiety is an appropriate response to life’s challenges — not a disorder.
Of course this is anecdotal, but as a psychiatrist, I haven’t seen an increase in the number of patients suffering from true anxiety disorders, who need therapy and often medication to keep their affliction in check. What I have noticed is that more of my young patients worry a lot about things that don’t seem so serious, and then worry about their worry. ...
It’s good to keep in mind that the advent of new technology typically provokes medical and moral panic. Remember all those warnings that TV would cause brain rot? Never happened.
- Richard A. Friedman, The Big Myth About Teenage Anxiety, NYT, Sept. 7, 2018

The worry that “today’s young people are reading less books” seems to be a theme for each successive generation. One can imagine a similar adult worry about the decline of college student book reading in the 1980s (when I went to school) or the 1880s.

Each generation of older people seems to be convinced that today’s young folks are succumbing to the latest distraction. Smart phones are the new rock and roll. Social media is the new comic book.

I suspect that today’s college students are just fine. That they read books today, and will read books in ever greater numbers long into the future.
- Joshua Kim, Is NYTimes Correct That College Students Don't Read Books?, Inside Higher Ed, September 3, 2018

After hearing conflicting opinions about the matters of the day, Mrs. Lee sighs and wonders: “Who, then, is right? How can we all be right? Half of our wise men declare that the world is going straight to perdition; the other half that it is fast becoming perfect. Both cannot be right.”
- Madeleine Lee ["who is young, rich and beautiful"], in Henry Adams ["Great-grandson and grandson of presidents, historian, professor and journalist]"], Democracy: an American Novel ["created a sensation and was a best seller in the United States and England"], published in 1880, quoted in Jon Meacham, Henry Adams’s 1880 Novel, ‘Democracy,’ Resonates Now More Than Ever, NYT, Sept. 11, 2018

Every year since 1999, more Americans have killed themselves than the year before, making suicide the nation’s greatest untamed cause of death. In much of the world, it’s among the only major threats to get significantly worse in this century than in the last.

The result is an accelerating paradox. Over the last five decades, millions of lives have been remade for the better. Yet within this brighter tomorrow, we suffer unprecedented despair. In a time defined by ever more social progress and astounding innovations, we have never been more burdened by sadness or more consumed by self-harm. And this may be only the beginning. ...
The trends in suicide in both America and abroad are mirrored by devastating changes in behavior and mental health. In the last two decades, for example, there’s been a 37 percent increase in the years of life lost to clinical depression, anxiety, alcohol and drug abuse, and other disorders of the mind, according to the batch of previously unpublished GBD data provided to Newsweek. As a group, these disorders are the leading cause of disability in the world, vexing developing countries in particular, and the United States most of all. ...
“The strength of the association between media violence and aggressive behavior,” the American Academy of Pediatrics concluded in 2009, “is greater than the association between calcium intake and bone mass, lead ingestion and lower IQ, and condom nonuse and sexually acquired HIV infection, and is nearly as strong as the association between cigarette smoking and lung cancer.”
- TONY DOKOUPIL, Why Suicide Has Become an Epidemic--and What We Can Do to Help, Newsweek, 5/23/13

The heroine of a sensational and successful novel, “Democracy,” published anonymously in 1880, Madeleine Lee, who is young, rich and beautiful, moves from New York to Washington to pass a season in a house on Lafayette Square. ...
Adams wished things were different. The corrupt politician is the putative villain of his book, the idealistic wayfarer his heroine. A cleareyed reading of the novel, however, suggests that his view of democracy has much in common with that of Machiavelli, Sidney, Emerson and Truman. After hearing conflicting opinions about the matters of the day, Mrs. Lee sighs and wonders: “Who, then, is right? How can we all be right? Half of our wise men declare that the world is going straight to perdition; the other half that it is fast becoming perfect. Both cannot be right.”
- Jon Meacham, Henry Adams’s 1880 Novel, ‘Democracy,’ Resonates Now More Than Ever, NYT, Sept. 11, 2018

Other sources of sexual inhibition speak distinctly to the way we live today. For example, sleep deprivation strongly suppresses desire—and sleep quality is imperiled by now-common practices like checking one’s phone overnight. (For women, getting an extra hour of sleep predicts a 14 percent greater likelihood of having sex the next day.) In her new book, Better Sex Through Mindfulness, Lori Brotto, an obstetrics-and-gynecology professor at the University of British Columbia, reviews lab research showing that background distraction of the sort we’re all swimming in now likewise dampens arousal, in both men and women.

How can such little things—a bad night’s sleep, low-grade distraction—defeat something as fundamental as sex? One answer, which I heard from a few quarters, is that our sexual appetites are meant to be easily extinguished. The human race needs sex, but individual humans don’t.

Among the contradictions of our time is this: We live in unprecedented physical safety, and yet something about modern life, very recent modern life, has triggered in many of us autonomic responses associated with danger—anxiety, constant scanning of our surroundings, fitful sleep. Under these circumstances, survival trumps desire. As Emily Nagoski likes to point out, nobody ever died of sexlessness: “We can starve to death, die of dehydration, even die of sleep deprivation. But nobody ever died of not being able to get laid.”
- KATE JULIAN, Why Are Young People Having So Little Sex?, Atlantic, DECEMBER 2018

Pessimists tend to prosper in uncertain times, and British politics at present is very much a catastrophists’ market. Critics and doomsayers are agitating more noisily as the prospect of the U.K. leaving without a deal becomes more likely.
We’re being told British shops will run out of food and medicines, aeroplanes will be grounded, and the economy could shrink by as much as 8 percent (that's the Bank of England's worst case scenario) if we leave the EU without a deal in place. Officials in both London and Brussels are talking publicly about contingency planning, while Labour and pro-EU Tory MPs have repeatedly pressed May to rule it out. In the last Cabinet meeting of the year, Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd supposedly compared Brexit to a car crash and Justice Secretary David Gauke said the concept of a "managed no-deal" was as mythical as a unicorn.
But doomsayers should hold their fire — Britain will be just fine.
Even if some instability does follow a no-treaty withdrawal, it would be short-term. Life would continue. Chickens would continue to lay eggs.
Trading restrictions work both ways, so any attempt by Brussels to punish the disobedient Brits by preventing them exporting agricultural goods to the EU might encourage the British government to find sudden reasons to stop the importation of German motor cars. Or Irish beef. Or French wine. Have you tried new-world merlots? They can be rather good. And good value.

No deal would, in fact, have tremendous advantages. It would allow Britain immediately to negotiate and sign trade deals beyond Europe. It would force May’s government to cut taxes to make us more competitive. It would result in a tremendous boost to national unity. ...
The EU's nightmare, alas, will continue.

The question in Britain will then not be “why did we leave?” but “why did it take us so long?”
- QUENTIN LETTS, Brexit Britain will be just fine, Politico, 12/26/18

Henri Clement
This opinion piece is the embodiment of “in this media age perception is reality”.
Dream on for all i care.

Posted on 12/26/18

Gerhard Lenz
Right. Several European governments are in trouble. So what about the British one? Everything is coming up roses, I assume.

The usual piece of Brexit glorification ...
This is just the usual display of the obvious combination of boastfulness and a profound lack of contact with reality that tags so many Brexiters.

Perhaps that instability will indeed not be as big as the greatest pessimists predict. Perhaps.

More likely: Britain will be poorer, significantly poorer. And, given the class structures still in place in todays’ Britain: Those who supported Brexit the most – large part of the working classes or lower middle classes – will certainly suffer most.

Posted on 12/26/18

Elena Adaal
It always strikes me from these type of articles, that with more positivity comes less detail.

There is no discussion on how the meat industry is going to cope with 30% tariffs, how the electricity production in NI will be handled, how the border will be handled, what will happen to the airport of Gibraltar, how the congestion at Dover will be dealt with, etc, ect.

Its going to be all right in the night because “chickens will still lay eggs”; Come on..

Posted on 12/26/18

Pascal St-Pierre
As a Frenchman who has lived and worked in London for more than ten years, I agree the UK will be fine, deal or no deal. The feeling in the City is great and very optimistic – far more so than my friends and family in France who all despise Macron.

Posted on 12/26/18

Antoine uk
... Our government unable to manage a drone in Gatwick or an identity card project.. or many other small changes. How do you expect this bunch of incompetent m….s to be able to handle the complexities of the biggest change in history in trade relationship with their neighbours… without a transition. ...

Posted on 12/26/18

- Comments on QUENTIN LETTS, Brexit Britain will be just fine, Politico, 12/26/18

In the event of a no-deal Brexit, trade would be governed by the rules of the World Trade Organization. That would mean tariffs reaching as high as 64 percent on dairy and other agricultural products, discouraging business. In that event, economic growth in the Republic of Ireland could be cut in half, according to a recent report from the Economic and Social Research Institute, a think tank in Dublin.

The Bank of England recently warned that a no-deal Brexit could plunge Britain into the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. ...
The company ships yarn from Asia to the port in Dublin, then trucks it across the border to be spun into fabric in Strabane. The fabric gets trucked back over the border to be dyed at a plant in Dublin. Some of the material comes back to Strabane, where workers cut and sew it into uniforms for rugby, Gaelic football and cricket teams. Making some products involves eight separate border crossings, Mr. Kennedy says.

On a recent trip to Brussels, European Union officials assured him that the border would not return.

Many analysts assume Europe and Britain will find a finesse that avoids a border, even if they fail to complete a Brexit deal.

“A hard border is unlikely, even in the event of a no-deal Brexit,” says Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at the Eurasia Group, a risk consultancy based in London. “Flexibility is likely to present itself.”

But Mrs. May is intent on limiting immigration, something Britain can do only by leaving the European marketplace, which requires free movement of people. Europe is adamant that Britain not be allowed to leave the bloc and keep the benefits of membership: It should not be able to sell its wares unhampered into the Republic while breaching European rules.

“There will need to be checks,” Mr. Rahman said. “The question is how onerous, and where those checks take place.”

For people in Ireland, history offers little comfort, teaching time and again that policies hatched in England tend to play out here with ill effect. Many see Brexit as the latest in a long string of indignities, a reckless bit of political histrionics that again puts Ireland in the cross hairs.

“Those politicians in London, they don’t give one dirt about Ireland,” says Willie McKeever, a retired woodcutter who lives in a pro-Republican neighborhood in the Northern Ireland city of Londonderry, where a 1968 police crackdown on protesters marked the beginning of The Troubles. “It could start up again.”

- Peter S. Goodman, The Border Dividing Ireland Has Long Been Invisible. Brexit Threatens to Make It Real., NYT, Dec. 26, 2018

This is the most extreme form of project fear yet, these people are an absolute disgrace.” That was how Nigel Farage, ever the patriot, dismissed the voice of the nation’s doctors last week. The British Medical Association had set out some of the harm a no-deal Brexit would cause. Its prediction that the UK’s ability to fight pandemics would be undermined grabbed the headlines. But in the small print were warnings of “delays in diagnosis and treatment for cancer patients” and adverse effects on “nearly a million patients receiving treatment for rare diseases”. ...
“It has become clear that Project Fear – the scare-mongering campaign carried out by those who want to remain in the EU – is alive and well,” well-known medico-legal expert Iain Duncan Smith . “Hardly a day goes by without another scare story about the UK failing to get medical isotopes.” And who among us, if they had cancer, wouldn’t turn to a failed party leader and benefits system for advice, as opposed to, say, the BMA council chair, Dr Chaand Nagpaul, with his 28 years’ as a doctor and CBE for services to primary care?

Somehow, we are back to having “had enough of experts”, in the words of cabinet minister Michael Gove. Or, at least, that’s the kind of mood Brexiteers want to stir up. Being able to paint expert advice as an elitist project to frustrate the will of the people may be their last chance to salvage the “Brexit Dream”. Let’s be entirely clear about what that dream is, because few of them have ever been honest about it: a legal separation from our closest neighbours that will retard growth, cost jobs, undermine consumer rights and disadvantage citizens.
- David Shariatmadari, Brexiteers are using the notion of Project Fear to manipulate you, NYT, Tue 21 Aug 2018

Alexander Dana Noyes, veteran financial editor of the New York Times, issued pessimistic forecasts. Paul M. Warburg of Kuhn, Loeb & Co. said that if the "orgy of unrestrained speculation" were not stopped it would "bring about a general depression involving the entire country." The economist Roger W. Babson disseminated such gloom that he was nicknamed the "Prophet of Loss." But the Cassandras were accused of "sandbagging American prosperity." The urge to talk up the market in 1929 was as powerful as the impulse to speak peace in 1939. Even the likes of Bernard Baruch... made bullish prognostications. Baruch stated in June that the "economic condition of the world seems on the verge of a great forward movement." Others were even more starry-eyed. The optimistic incantations of bankers and brokers were understandable. But most commentators and academics echoed them, none more famously than Professor Irving Fisher of Yale, who estimated that "stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."
- Piers Brendon, The Dark Valley: A Panorama of the 1930s, Knopf Doubleday Publishing Group, 2007, pp. 72-73.

Technology may have liberated us from the old gatekeepers, but it also created a culture of choose-your-own-fact niches, elevated conspiracy thinking to the center of public consciousness and brought the incessant nightmare of high-school-clique drama to every human endeavor.

It also skewed our experience of daily reality. Objectively, the world today is better than ever, but the digital world inevitably makes everyone feel worse. It isn’t just the substance of daily news that unmoors you, but also the speed and volume and oversaturated fakery of it all.
- Farhad Manjoo, You Should Meditate Every Day, NYT, Jan. 9, 2019

ARNP, Des Moines, IA, 1/14/2019
Most of Iowa is disgusted with King, and mortified that his district supports him. I, for one, cannot fathom how anyone can stand King. But obviously a big chunk of the country likes Trump, too. Yikes. We seem to be moving backwards awfully rapidly. I'm scared for my daughter and other young adults who have never known a U.S. before Reagan.
- Comment on Trip Gabriel, Jonathan Martin and Nicholas Fandos, Steve King Removed from Committee Assignments Over White Supremacy Remark, NYT, Jan. 14, 2019

Who is in charge of the clattering train?”

Nobody knows. With Mrs. May’s cabinet, the country, political parties and Parliament all hopelessly split over how or whether to carry out Brexit, Britain’s political universe is imploding and so are its political norms.
- Jenni Russell, Britain Is a Nation in Desperate Need of a Driver, NYT, Jan. 15, 2019

The world, Fukuyama reminded us, was not going to hell in a handbasket.

The only flaw in the brilliance of The End of History was that its thesis turned out to be wrong, and wrong in a huge way. ...
Far from avowing the triumph of liberal democracy, in 2019 many believe we will be lucky to hold on to the dwindling number of liberal democracies we have.
- ALAN WOLFE, Francis Fukuyama’s Shrinking Idea, New Republic, January 16, 2019

So why does it seem as if the world is in decline? Largely because we are much less willing to tolerate misfortune and misery.
- Bill Gates, What Are the Biggest Problems Facing Us in the 21st Century?, NYT, Sept. 4, 2018

In so many domains, life is improving across the world.

It doesn’t always feel that way. In surveys, Americans overwhelmingly believe that world poverty is getting worse or staying the same (it’s getting much better). And they tend to underestimate, by a wide margin, the percentages of children in the developing world who are receiving vaccines. ...
The giant strides that have been made in recent years show things are far from hopeless, and point the way toward the possibility of more progress.
- Austin Frakt and Aaron E. Carroll, Giant Strides in World Health, but It Could Be So Much Better, NYT, Feb. 4, 2019

By many measures, America is thriving. The economy is humming, and unemployment is at 4 percent. High-school graduation rates are at an all-time high, and teenage pregnancy rates are at an all-time low. The crime rate is way down, and illegal immigration has been declining for over a decade.

And yet: Polls show that three in five Americans think the country is on the wrong track. A majority expect things to get worse in the coming year. The president’s job approval numbers are underwater; Congress’s even more so.
- The Editorial Board, A More Honest State of the Union, NYT, Feb. 4, 2019

Collectively, 82 percent of Americans said they were optimistic about their future, and there was a fairly uniform positive outlook across the nation. ...
Individuality and family, not wealth and real estate, are what Americans seek and believe they are finding in the national “dream.”

What conclusions should we draw from this research? I think the findings suggest that Americans would be well served to focus less intently on the nastiness of our partisan politics and the material temptations of our consumer culture, and to focus more on the communities they are part of and exercising their freedom to live as they wish. After all, that is what most of us seem to think is what really matters — and it’s in reach for almost all of us.
- Samuel J. Abrams, The American Dream Is Alive and Well, NYT, Feb. 5, 2019 ("Dr. Abrams is a political scientist. ...and a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.")

He is one of a number of left-wing French intellectuals—among them the novelist Michel Houellebecq, the historian Georges Bensoussan, and the essayist Michel Onfray—who in recent years have argued that their beloved patrie has drifted into inexorable decline, a classic critique of the French right since 1789.
- James McAuley, Low Visibility, New York Review of Books, MARCH 21, 2019

Daniel Silliman, a Valparaiso University professor of religion, called Beth Israel and its pastor part of a long tradition of Americans “looking to prophecy as a way to absorb the chaos” of current events. “It can make someone feel that God is working through human history,” he said, “transforming anxiety into a sense of fullness.”
- Sam Kestenbaum, #MAGA Church: The Doomsday Prophet Who Says the Bible Predicted Trump, NYT, March 15, 2019

Pessimism would be an ethical catastrophe. It leads only to despair, despair to inaction, and inaction to a future world David Attenborough has described as “the collapse of our civilizations and the extinction of much of the natural world.” To avoid the most terrible possible versions of our future, we have to stay positive; it’s the only moral response to this crisis. ...
The science of global warming has been settled for 40 years, but we have not just continued to pollute, we have accelerated the rate at which we’ve been doing so. Most of the carbon humans have put into the atmosphere has been emitted in the last three decades. As Wallace-Wells tartly puts it, “We have done as much damage to the fate of the planet and its ability to sustain human life and civilization since Al Gore published his first book on the climate than in all the centuries — all the millenniums — that came before.” ...
t’s not just that we know what’s happening, it’s that we’ve known for years and done nothing. Nathaniel Rich observes in “Losing Earth: A Recent History” that “nearly every conversation we have in 2019 about climate change was being held in 1979.” His gripping, depressing, revelatory book is an expanded version of a whole-issue article that appeared in The New York Times Magazine last year. It is an account of what went wrong — of how it was that a moment of growing awareness of climate change, and an apparent willingness to act on the knowledge, was allowed to dissipate into stasis and inaction.
- John Lanchester, Two New Books Dramatically Capture the Climate Change Crisis, NYT, April 12, 2019

"One response occasionally heard from neoliberal economists... is that people are better off, but they just don't know it. Their discontent is a matter for psychiatrists, not economists."
- Joseph Stiglitz, Globalization and Its Discontents Revisited, 2018, p. xvi.

Neither party expected for the war the magnitude or the duration which it has already attained.
- Abraham Lincoln, Second Inaugural Address.

America is thriving like never before, and ladies and gentlemen of Minnesota, I will tell you this with great certainty, the best is yet to come.
- Donald Trump, Minnesota Rally Speech, October 10, 2019, 4:03:42

The American public had been sold a war through outright fabrications; the economy was in free fall thanks to Wall Street greed and the failure of Washington regulators.
- Josh Owens, I Worked for Alex Jones. I Regret It., NYT, Dec. 5, 2019

Still, it’s easy to get conspiratorial and to fall comfortably into black and white notions of good versus evil. “Uncanny Valley” is a reminder that the reality is far more muddled but no less damning. Our dystopia isn’t just the product of mustache-twirling billionaires drunk with power and fueled by greed — though it is that, too, sometimes. It’s also the result of uncritical thinking, blind spots caused by an overwhelmingly white male work force and a pathological reluctance to ask the bigger question: Where is this all going? What am I building?
- Charlie Warzel, The Flawed Humanity of Silicon Valley, NYT, Jan. 28, 2020

That the world is a mess is a proposition with which the left and the right can both agree. Conservatives look around and see a heathen culture degraded by “cultural Marxism” and the tyranny of social justice; leftists, on the other hand, see a society brought to the brink of collapse by capitalism, patriarchy, and corporate greed. There is no shortage of explanations for why and when this downward slide began: It could have been the radical 1960s that kicked it off, or maybe the triumph of neoliberalism, or Roe or Reagan or Nafta or the internet. In any case, it is bad, and everyone but Steven Pinker seems to agree about that by now.
- JAKE BITTLE, The Modern World Disappoints Ross Douthat, New Republic, February 21, 2020

Have we grown too lazy and silly and poorly educated to sustain a working democracy? We live in a moment when tribal bumper stickers — both left and right — pass for politics, when ignorance and grievance drive policy. The federal government exists at a level of complexity most people just can’t be bothered to understand. We have little idea what it does, only the vague sense that it doesn’t do anything very well.
- Joe Klein, Michael Lewis Wonders Who’s Really Running the Government, NYT, Oct. 8, 2018

Given all of this, it makes sense that so many Americans have soured on their own country. For almost 20 years, through economic booms and busts and through presidencies of both parties, most Americans have said the country was headed in the wrong direction.
- David Leonhardt and Yaryna Serkez, America Will Struggle After Coronavirus. These Charts Show Why., NYT, APRIL 10, 2020

“A lot of people are overreacting,” Mr. Giargiari, who is white, said as he walked through Rittenhouse Square, a wealthy area. “We’ve been through tough times, and people thought it was the end of the world, but people come through.”
- Carmelo Giargiari ["74, a stock market day trader sporting a “Trump 2020” pin in his baseball hat"], quoted in Lisa Lerer and Dave Umhoefer, On the Future, Americans Can Agree: It Doesn’t Look Good, NYT, June 12, 2020

Iscreama [6/26/2020]
Realize that the election of Trump was a symptom of a larger issue - there are a lot of people who have been motivated to put a bully in charge to represent them and their feelings of being marginalized, their deep fears of 'other' people coming into the country and taking what is theirs, etc. America is on the brink of societal collapse - I hope to the depths of my soul that there is a representative who can address the positions of BOTH sides of this divide and can pull us together as a nation. United we stand. Divided we fall. Hard.
- Comment on Michael Kranish, Mary Trump once stood up to her uncle Donald. Now her book describes a ‘nightmare’ of family dysfunction., Washington Post, June 26, 2020

(See also Heaven on Earth and Going to Hell.)

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